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This strikes me as something that you want to be true, and are using numbers to justify that. This is like saying that Edge of Tomorrow was a failure, because even though it did $370 million worldwide, which is pretty damn big, they expected it to do MORE.
I'm pretty sure Halo 5 is going to break even at least, and likely more. 343 will have all the resources they need for Halo 6. I think instead of using sales numbers to see if Halo is in decline, look at the quality of the games instead. And that's a bit subjective.