Apparently, it's all but confirmed that, according to the NPD, Halo 5 sold less than one million copies in the U.S. in October. At least that's the word over at GAF. Considering that Halo 5 showed a big drop-off as well in the UK, it's looking increasingly like the same situation is playing out here in the U.S. Plus there's this:

If true, that is a massive drop-off. Halo 2, 3, Reach, and 4 all sold well over 3 million copies on launch month in the U.S. according to the NPD. Even using high-end percentages for early digital sales for retail-release games (maybe 15-20%; the average for the whole U.S. market sans bundled games was slightly over 5% last year) and adding bundles to the mix (the XBO sold 305k in October based on MS PR, and it's obvious not all of those are going to be H5 bundles) that isn't going to make a difference. Hell, even the fact that Halo 5 had fewer days in which to sell than the others isn't going to make that huge of a difference, as based on past PR the sales in launch month are very front-loaded. For example, of the 3.3 million copies Halo 3 sold in the U.S. in September 2007, 2.5 million were sold in the first 24 hours. Best-case scenario, between physical, standalone digital, and bundled copies, we're talking maybe 1.4 million copies maximum, which is still less than the 1.52 million that ODST sold in September 2009.

While it could have good legs and still get some very good lifetime sales (meaning it's too early to call it a flop), if it really did sell under a million on launch month that is not a good start. I was suspicious of that shining PR statement bragging about "$400 million in revenue" also including hardware and I was worried we might see a drop-off from previous Halo games, but I wasn't expecting this. But right now unless either A) some wires got crosses regarding the sales estimates or B) Halo 5 had some sort of abnormally massive record-setting percentage of its sales from digital (like 70+% including bundles) it seems to be the case that it had the worst launch of any main series Halo game in the U.S.

I only wonder what could have caused a series with historically stable launch performances to suddenly drop off a cliff like this. The MCC's launch woes persisting for several months, maybe? Not enough Master Chief levels? Simple franchise fatigue? Fans revolting against 343i and/or just sticking with Bungie by switching to Destiny? People waiting for Black Friday? Or maybe it's the lack of split-screen? I know two of my friends, dedicated Halo players both, were turned off by lack of split-screen and haven't bought H5 yet.

While Halo 5 is lacking in content at the moment and the loss of split-screen is a bummer, it still had a better campaign than Halo 4, its MP is better balanced, and Warzone can be a lot of fun. I would have thought it would do better than this.