HBOHBO Forum
glyphstrip  
Halo.bungie.org
glyphstrip
Frequently Asked Forum Questions
 Search the HBO News Archives

Any All Exact 
Search the Halo Updates DBs

BWU Halo Halo2 
Search Older Posts on This Forum:
Posts on Current Forum | Archived Posts

View Thread Reply Return to Index Set Prefs Previous Next
Re: They are meaningless.
By:Gravemind
Date: 7/6/15 11:13 pm
In Response To: Re: They are meaningless. (Revenant1988)

: It happened to music.

RIAA data shows physical formats were still the majority of the U.S. music industry's revenues all the way through 2010. CDs are still the preferred format for buying full albums. Vinyl, while still niche, is experiencing a rapid resurgence. Even now, almost 14 years after the iPod was first released, the music industry still hasn't forced us to all switch to digital, and while physical is no longer the majority source of revenue it is still far from irrelevant.

: It happened to movies.

Hm. I was in Walmart earlier today. Saw a bunch of movies on DVD and Blu-ray. Still got plenty of Redboxes all over the place. While DVD's best days are behind it, Blu-ray is still experiencing slow but steady growth... growth likely hampered by HDTV still not reaching the nearly 100% household penetration that color CRT TVs had (HDTVs are only in 81% of American homes as of this year, meaning over 20 million homes are still using their old CRTs). Physical is still very much relevant for home video, and with the shitty selection Netflix has, no wonder. But streaming video for movies & TV has been around for nearly a decade, with no sign that the industry is going to stop making video discs and force everyone to switch to digital.

: It will happen to gaming.

No evidence that this is the case.

: You are a fool to think otherwise.

A fool for believing in the evidence? Well, I guess I'm proud to be a fool.

: The vast majority prefers the past of least resistance. Collectors will
: always prize physical, and a physical incarnation will always exist in
: some (limited) form.

If you think that then you clearly don't understand the console market.

: You can keep your head in the sand all you want, but progress is progress.
: Digital will happen.

The problem with grandiose claims like "Digital-only is happening in <10 years," and "This will be the last console generation" is that they never quite pan out. Those claims that this is the last console generation? They aren't anything new. Some analysts predicted last generation would be the final one and that we'd have moved to a service-based model by now. Big claims about huge disruptions in the console market have been made for a long time, yet the status quo remains unchanged, and the one attempt to force a change in said status quo was met by perhaps the biggest single instance of gamer backlash in the post-crash era. All those analysts making those big predictions obviously have malfunctioning crystal balls, and I think you got yours from the same magic shop.

The vast majority of console gamers want physical, hence the 18-to-1 ratio in favor of discs over paid downloads last year (that's EIGHTEEN TO ONE, as in for every full digital download of retail-release game, 18 physical copies were purchased; IN 2014!). They aren't just going to give that up. Neither movies nor music nor literature has ceased production of physical media and forced everyone to switch to digital. If it hasn't even happened to music yet, then it sure as hell isn't happening to the console market. Whichever of the Big Three attempts to force such a shift will not survive as a first-party company. They'll be the next Sega. If all three attempt it, then expect a repeat of 1983. Like I said, neither the demand nor the necessary infrastructure is there. Only a small fraction of console gamers have gone digital (5% at most), and a digital-only future for consoles would push tens of millions of customers away from gaming altogether and cut tens of millions of customers more out of the equation entirely either because they don't have internet service that is good enough or simply don't want to bother.

The numbers are what they are. I've provided them to you. 18-to-1 in favor of physical. At least 40% of 360 owners not online at all as recently as 2013, a percentage that stayed relatively stable for at least five years, thus showing an equilibrium of sorts was reached a good while ago. Only 24% of U.S. households with download speeds of 10mbps or more (and bandwidth caps galore!). If you choose to ignore the numbers that show that physical discs for console games has a long and healthy future ahead of it, well, the only one with their head in the sand is you, brother.

: It IS happening.

Sure. And back in the 80s we thought 2015 might look a little something like this:

Of course, that's just comedy, and sci-fi frequently overestimates not only the rate of advance but also the nature of said advance. Something more real and closer to the subject at hand would be virtual reality. Back in the early 90s VR was touted as "the future of gaming" by many. Many game magazines ran articles hyping the technology. A lot of people seriously thought that VR would be the main form of interactive entertainment by the turn of the century. Here we are after nearly a quarter of a century and VR is still being hyped up and is still looking unlikely to make any real headway. I've been hearing this shit about VR since I was in middle school in the early 90s, and I've been hearing failed prognostications about the impending demise of consoles or something else massively disruptive for nearly a decade, so you can see why I look upon such claims with skepticism.

The console market has been one of continuously repeating generational cycles and slow stepwise evolution, not radical shifts in the very nature of the market, and there's no reason to think this won't continue being the case. The status quo will be retained for a very, very long time to come. To me, digital-only consoles are the flying cars of the gaming industry.


Messages In This Thread

Are you preordering Halo 5?Moorpheusl97/5/15 11:54 am
     Definitely NOT preorderingscarab7/5/15 12:16 pm
           i pre-order halo 5Bounce-A-Gon7/5/15 2:04 pm
                 Re: i pre-order halo 5Grizzlei7/5/15 2:42 pm
                       Re: i pre-order halo 5 lets be honestBounce-A-Gon7/5/15 3:07 pm
                             Re: i pre-order halo 5 lets be honestHyokin7/5/15 9:01 pm
                 Re: i pre-order halo 5General Vagueness7/6/15 12:19 am
                       Will continue to pre-order from those I trust...yakaman7/6/15 2:13 pm
                             Re: Will continue to pre-order from those I trust.thebruce07/6/15 3:01 pm
                                   Re: Will continue to pre-order from those I trust.yakaman7/6/15 6:17 pm
                             Re: Will continue to pre-order from those I trust.Azo 'Galvat7/6/15 4:48 pm
                                   +1Grizzlei7/6/15 5:08 pm
                                         Re: +1 +1 *NM*kidtsunami7/6/15 6:12 pm
                                         Re: +1yakaman7/6/15 6:14 pm
                                               Re: +1 +1 *NM*thebruce07/7/15 9:14 am
     MaybeVincent7/5/15 1:22 pm
     Yep!Grizzlei7/5/15 2:37 pm
     Re: Nope.Hyokin7/5/15 2:45 pm
     DependsUrban Reflex7/5/15 2:59 pm
           Re: DependsMoorpheusl97/5/15 3:19 pm
                 Re: Dependsasa7/5/15 3:59 pm
                       Re: DependsMoorpheusl97/5/15 4:13 pm
                             Re: Dependsasa7/5/15 4:23 pm
     Probably.serpx7/5/15 3:26 pm
     Preordering it? Ha!Joe Duplessie (SNIPE 316)7/5/15 4:34 pm
           Just curious...yakaman7/6/15 2:24 pm
                 Re: Just curious...Joe Duplessie (SNIPE 316)7/6/15 6:15 pm
                       I strongly disagree with youkidtsunami7/7/15 6:18 pm
     Pre-orders are meaningless today. Stop doing them. *NM*Revenant19887/5/15 4:51 pm
           But, midnight launches. *NM*Gravemind7/5/15 6:10 pm
     Nope.Phoenix_92867/5/15 5:06 pm
     Nah.Quirel7/5/15 5:28 pm
           Same here. *NM*robofin1177/5/15 5:56 pm
     Noooope!LostSpartan9877/5/15 7:08 pm
     Absolutely notpadraig087/5/15 8:06 pm
           very few people at large have the same halo values *NM*Bounce-A-Gon7/5/15 9:15 pm
                 BTW, your new nickname is Mr. Sunshine.Quirel7/6/15 3:04 am
                       Re: BTW, your new nickname is Mr. Sunshine.Joe Duplessie (SNIPE 316)7/6/15 6:03 am
                             ^What he said... Oddly enough. *NM*munky-0587/6/15 4:56 pm
                       Great words, my friend.robofin1177/6/15 6:02 pm
                       Thanks. All of you. *NM*Quirel7/8/15 1:01 am
     Yeazofinda7/5/15 8:56 pm
     You're an idiot if you do.Pkmnrulz2407/5/15 9:30 pm
           It is the year 2016 C.E.Grizzlei7/5/15 9:43 pm
                 Re: It is the year 2016 C.E.Hyokin7/5/15 9:54 pm
           hey look at meBounce-A-Gon7/5/15 9:47 pm
                 I don't think he means the game itselfZackDark7/5/15 10:03 pm
                       oh hell nohunt3r7/6/15 5:18 am
                             They are meaningless.Revenant19887/6/15 6:55 am
                                   Re: They are meaningless.Gravemind7/6/15 2:32 pm
                                         Re: They are meaningless.Revenant19887/6/15 7:25 pm
                                               *path. Path of least resistance. *NM*Revenant19887/6/15 7:29 pm
                                               Re: They are meaningless.Gravemind7/6/15 11:13 pm
                                                     *drops mic* *NM*thebruce07/7/15 9:19 am
                                                     Re: They are meaningless.Revenant19887/7/15 7:18 pm
                       Re: I don't think he means the game itselfPkmnrulz2407/6/15 12:23 pm
                             it may be a weak arguementBounce-A-Gon7/6/15 3:59 pm
                                   Wrong.munky-0587/6/15 4:51 pm
                                         Re: Wrong.Bounce-A-Gon7/6/15 5:30 pm
                                               Re: Wrong.thebruce07/7/15 9:23 am
                             Re: I don't think he means the game itselfserpx7/7/15 4:20 pm
                 Re: hey look at meGeneral Vagueness7/6/15 1:13 pm
     Re: Are you preordering Halo 5?MacGyver107/6/15 10:15 am
     Probably not...yakaman7/6/15 2:16 pm
     Re: Are you preordering Halo 5?GreyThor7/7/15 3:31 am
           *OT* gah!thebruce07/7/15 9:24 am
                 There, there. *pats on shoulder*robofin1177/8/15 12:19 am
     Re: Are you preordering Halo 5?ForeignDevil7/11/15 1:17 am

Sign up to post.

You will only be able to post to the forum if you first create a user profile.
If, however, you already have a user profile, please follow the "Set Preferences" link on the main index page and enter your user name to log in to post.