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Nope. Not happening, at least not on consoles. Neither the demand nor the infrastructure is there. First off, software sales:
Over half of digital "AAA"/retail-release games were given away as part of a bundle. If you eliminate those, physical outsells full digital paid downloads by a roughly 18-to-1 ratio. Online forums may be filled with console gamers claiming to have switched or are planning to switch to digital, the data shows they aren't representative of the market as a whole (if the portion of the gaming community that went online to discuss games actually was representative of the market, the Wii U would be doing a lot better than it is). The vast majority of console gamers clearly prefer physical. You actually own physical copies, which if you take care of them will last you a lifetime. You can lend, sell, or trade them thanks to the first-sale rule, they can still be obtained even after going out of print, they aren't dependent on some server, they won't vanish into the ether thanks to a hard drive crash 20 years from now, and they can't be taken away from you "for reasons" (because people have lost not only individual titles but entire libraries because said content was remotely removed by the service provider). The whole debacle over the original plans for the XBO to be "almost-always-on" and potentially blocking used games should have been a signal that most console gamers don't want the status quo to change, and a switch to digital-only would be just as big of a change to the status quo as the original plans for the XBO (it'd also be a forced switch, something that movies, literature, and even music haven't done and aren't planning on doing). While the majority of PC gamers have switched to digital, the PC and console markets are two different beasts.
Second, there are tens of millions of console gamers who are not online. According to official figures from MS, as recently as late 2013 at least 40% of 360 users did not have an XBL account (48M XBL subs vs. ~80M 360s), a percentage that remained remarkably stable since at least 2008, thus showing little growth in the ratio of Xbox 360s to XBL accounts. This suggests that the percentage of console gamers who want to be online at all reached its saturation point years ago. For just 360 owners alone that's over 30 million systems that are not online at all. Going full digital would necessarily require the system to be connected to the internet, thus potentially locking out tens of millions of would-be customers.
Internet service isn't exactly all that great in many countries where consoles are sold. In the U.S., as of late 2013 only about a quarter of U.S. households had download speeds above 10mbps. While some of us with good internet connections take it for granted, there are tens of millions of homes that lack good, stable high-speed internet. Also, unless you can pre-load a preorder, even with a good internet connection it can often be quicker for some people to just drive to Walmart or GameStop or wherever and buy the physical copy from the store. I have a DL speed of nearly 30mbps, but even at that speed a 25GB game would take nearly two hours to download. Meanwhile, it'd take me only half an hour to drive to GameStop, buy the game, and drive home. Digital really isn't inherently more convenient than physical even if you have decent internet.
Maybe if U.S. law changed to confer ownership and first-sale rights to purchasers of digital copies (including the right to lend or sell off titles that have been de-listed from a digital storefront) and if digital copies were otherwise treated from both a legal and practical standpoint as no different from a physical copy, and if 90+% of U.S. households had stable internet speeds in excess of 100mbps, then maybe, maybe I could see digital expanding to become the majority of console game sales. But that ain't happening anytime soon. If any console maker attempts to go digital-only at any time within the next several generations, trust me, they'll be going the way of Sega. I honestly doubt they'd be stupid enough to attempt it.
Are you preordering Halo 5? | Moorpheusl9 | 7/5/15 11:54 am |
Definitely NOT preordering | scarab | 7/5/15 12:16 pm |
i pre-order halo 5 | Bounce-A-Gon | 7/5/15 2:04 pm |
Re: i pre-order halo 5 | Grizzlei | 7/5/15 2:42 pm |
Re: i pre-order halo 5 lets be honest | Bounce-A-Gon | 7/5/15 3:07 pm |
Re: i pre-order halo 5 lets be honest | Hyokin | 7/5/15 9:01 pm |
Re: i pre-order halo 5 | General Vagueness | 7/6/15 12:19 am |
Will continue to pre-order from those I trust... | yakaman | 7/6/15 2:13 pm |
Re: Will continue to pre-order from those I trust. | thebruce0 | 7/6/15 3:01 pm |
Re: Will continue to pre-order from those I trust. | yakaman | 7/6/15 6:17 pm |
Re: Will continue to pre-order from those I trust. | Azo 'Galvat | 7/6/15 4:48 pm |
+1 | Grizzlei | 7/6/15 5:08 pm |
Re: +1 +1 *NM* | kidtsunami | 7/6/15 6:12 pm |
Re: +1 | yakaman | 7/6/15 6:14 pm |
Re: +1 +1 *NM* | thebruce0 | 7/7/15 9:14 am |
Maybe | Vincent | 7/5/15 1:22 pm |
Yep! | Grizzlei | 7/5/15 2:37 pm |
Re: Nope. | Hyokin | 7/5/15 2:45 pm |
Depends | Urban Reflex | 7/5/15 2:59 pm |
Re: Depends | Moorpheusl9 | 7/5/15 3:19 pm |
Re: Depends | asa | 7/5/15 3:59 pm |
Re: Depends | Moorpheusl9 | 7/5/15 4:13 pm |
Re: Depends | asa | 7/5/15 4:23 pm |
Probably. | serpx | 7/5/15 3:26 pm |
Preordering it? Ha! | Joe Duplessie (SNIPE 316) | 7/5/15 4:34 pm |
Just curious... | yakaman | 7/6/15 2:24 pm |
Re: Just curious... | Joe Duplessie (SNIPE 316) | 7/6/15 6:15 pm |
I strongly disagree with you | kidtsunami | 7/7/15 6:18 pm |
Pre-orders are meaningless today. Stop doing them. *NM* | Revenant1988 | 7/5/15 4:51 pm |
But, midnight launches. *NM* | Gravemind | 7/5/15 6:10 pm |
Nope. | Phoenix_9286 | 7/5/15 5:06 pm |
Nah. | Quirel | 7/5/15 5:28 pm |
Same here. *NM* | robofin117 | 7/5/15 5:56 pm |
Noooope! | LostSpartan987 | 7/5/15 7:08 pm |
Absolutely not | padraig08 | 7/5/15 8:06 pm |
very few people at large have the same halo values *NM* | Bounce-A-Gon | 7/5/15 9:15 pm |
BTW, your new nickname is Mr. Sunshine. | Quirel | 7/6/15 3:04 am |
Re: BTW, your new nickname is Mr. Sunshine. | Joe Duplessie (SNIPE 316) | 7/6/15 6:03 am |
^What he said... Oddly enough. *NM* | munky-058 | 7/6/15 4:56 pm |
Great words, my friend. | robofin117 | 7/6/15 6:02 pm |
Thanks. All of you. *NM* | Quirel | 7/8/15 1:01 am |
Yea | zofinda | 7/5/15 8:56 pm |
You're an idiot if you do. | Pkmnrulz240 | 7/5/15 9:30 pm |
It is the year 2016 C.E. | Grizzlei | 7/5/15 9:43 pm |
Re: It is the year 2016 C.E. | Hyokin | 7/5/15 9:54 pm |
hey look at me | Bounce-A-Gon | 7/5/15 9:47 pm |
I don't think he means the game itself | ZackDark | 7/5/15 10:03 pm |
oh hell no | hunt3r | 7/6/15 5:18 am |
They are meaningless. | Revenant1988 | 7/6/15 6:55 am |
Re: They are meaningless. | Gravemind | 7/6/15 2:32 pm |
Re: They are meaningless. | Revenant1988 | 7/6/15 7:25 pm |
*path. Path of least resistance. *NM* | Revenant1988 | 7/6/15 7:29 pm |
Re: They are meaningless. | Gravemind | 7/6/15 11:13 pm |
*drops mic* *NM* | thebruce0 | 7/7/15 9:19 am |
Re: They are meaningless. | Revenant1988 | 7/7/15 7:18 pm |
Re: I don't think he means the game itself | Pkmnrulz240 | 7/6/15 12:23 pm |
it may be a weak arguement | Bounce-A-Gon | 7/6/15 3:59 pm |
Wrong. | munky-058 | 7/6/15 4:51 pm |
Re: Wrong. | Bounce-A-Gon | 7/6/15 5:30 pm |
Re: Wrong. | thebruce0 | 7/7/15 9:23 am |
Re: I don't think he means the game itself | serpx | 7/7/15 4:20 pm |
Re: hey look at me | General Vagueness | 7/6/15 1:13 pm |
Re: Are you preordering Halo 5? | MacGyver10 | 7/6/15 10:15 am |
Probably not... | yakaman | 7/6/15 2:16 pm |
Re: Are you preordering Halo 5? | GreyThor | 7/7/15 3:31 am |
*OT* gah! | thebruce0 | 7/7/15 9:24 am |
There, there. *pats on shoulder* | robofin117 | 7/8/15 12:19 am |
Re: Are you preordering Halo 5? | ForeignDevil | 7/11/15 1:17 am |