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Halo 1: 3-4 years in development (1997?-2001)
Halo 2: 3 years (2001-2004)
Halo 3: 3 years (2004-2007)
Halo Reach: 3 years (2007-2010)
Halo 4: 3 years (2009-2012)
Releasing Halo 5 just two years after Halo 4 would be stretching it. I don't see how they can release a quality product in that little time, unless a significant amount of the work was done before Halo 4's release. I can imagine that a significant amount of the story was written long ago, since 343i seems to have more of a long-term vision for the story than Bungie ever did.