You left out one possibility. What if the village was near one of the passes on the western side? Remember that it takes awhile to get through Bagrada if you dont manage to get lost, so any refugees from the eastern settlements would have had a long journy to "safty".
Also, the survivers from Cruniacs company took a much less traveled rout over the montans before takeing the world knot directly to madrical. This takes out any possablity that they might have warned the trading towns that bordered the passes of the danger.
Drunken Ghol
