Project Lead on VENERANCE here.

I think it could fare fairly well. (Wordplay only halfway intentional.)

Yes, HaloGen was issued a C&D, and yes, Halo Wars is essentially the reason why, best as folks know secondhand, but that does not have to be the sole reason for such a C&D.

Here are the rules I would recommend you, your project, and your teammates live by:

Rule #1: Don't even let the smell of money get near your project. Don't let your site have ads, don't put up a donate button, and don't sell T-Shirts. If it involves money, basically don't touch it with a 60-foot pole.

Rule #2: Do not ever, ever compromise on your obedience to Rule #1.

Rule #3: Do yourself a favor and be familiar with Microsoft's Game Content Usage Rules, linked here for your convenience: http://www.xbox.com/en-US/community/developer/rules

Rule #4: Never be afraid to ask folks in the Halo community for help or feedback. Seriously, it's more willingly offered than you'd think. The worst they can do is ignore you.

Fact is, if they are aware of your project's existence, then they can issue you a C&D. They don't really need to explain themselves if they do, since it's their IP. But they've been pretty cool about things like this lately.

Personally, I think the time could very well be ripe in the next couple of years for a "Halo Wars 2," so there is that.

Be careful, and best of luck! =)