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First of all, since you compared it to Halo 2, realize that at the time XBL was not nearly as mature as it is now, and Halo 2 basically laid the foundation for what we have today. That being said, it should be obvious that Halo 2 kept high numbers because nobody else was there to compete at the time. Who else was doing online multiplayer at the level of Halo 2 around its release? But now that it set the standard, how many games NOW do online multiplayer as well as Halo 4? Fewer play because there's more quality choices.
I would also like to point out that HBO, and various other communities are but a small piece of the pie of people who buy and like Halo.
Your best indicators are shit. The only indicator that matters is whether YOU PERSONALLY still enjoy the Halo games / books / toys / Merchandise / Cortana vibrators / whatever, and that obviously only matters TO YOU.
There are many game series that I enjoy that aren't even blips on the internet nor sales charts which I think are doing amazing. There are also AAA games selling very well which I think are in a terrible direction.