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| Bungie Day | |
| Posted By: Beorn <beorn@beorn.me> | Date: 1/24/13 1:12 a.m. |
In Response To: Destiny announcement prediction thread (katancik) : Destiny announcement is coming soon and I want to hear everyone's prediction : for when the announcement will be! GDC has been officially confirmed to : offer at least something Destiny-related and that takes place March 25th : to the 29th. : My prediction is that the announcement will come a week before GDC, just
: (If you already know the announcement date, keep your hands in your lap ;)) Alright, I'll bite. The GDC presentation description over here says, "In a presentation filled with concept art and design case studies, attendees will learn about Bungie's world building pillars, and see how these were put to use to create Bungie's next great universe of games."It seems they can accomplish all of this without ever making an official announcement, or even saying "Destiny" during the presentation. Much of the talk—as described above—can be done with non-specific, theoretical design examples. And I wouldn't be surprised if one or two of the concept art pieces were things that already slipped, but I definitely do think they'll show a couple of new ones as well. That said, I'm not expecting an official announcement until after GDC, possibly as late as this summer (Bungie Day, anyone?) or even early fall. My completely untrained reasoning behind this schedule is that many AAA titles seem to require at least a year of lead time between announcement and release. My understanding is that this lead time helps build public awareness and generates ripples in the news cycles to build up a maximum-peak tidal wave of interest for launch. I'm sure there's a more exact science to it, but a year or two seems to be the standard lead-up for games of this caliber. Also note that the Autumn pre-holiday season is the preferred launch window for these AAA games due to the large effect holiday purchases can have on sales figures. Therefore, I don't think the original "Fall 2013" launch is still a current target. If it were, Destiny would have significantly less than a year to build the momentum that these games require for big launches (and given the presumably massive development costs, I imagine Activision is looking to have as big a launch as possible). An announcement around Bungie Day with a launch window of "Fall 2014" seems to be the sweet spot for me. Now, I'm looking forward to Destiny as much as the next guy, so let's all hope that I'm wrong and Bungie lights up GDC with some jaw-dropping, pants-filling, tear-inducing, glorious Destiny info!
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