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October 2011 REACH Population Report
Posted By: DEEP NNN <deep_nnn@hotmail.com>	Date: 10/31/11 5:36 p.m.
These values are unofficial and collected manually by me from the Bungie REACH project page. I make no guarantees for the accuracy of this data and provided no quality control or quality assurance for my work in collecting it. http://www.bungie.net/Projects/Reach/default.aspx In the following graph I attempted to offset Halo 3 values such that similar days of the week for October were compared. I am not 100% happy with the result but I still feel it is a better comparison than just using exact dates. October 2011 REACH UU/24hr Date, Games, Unique Users October 1, 2011 1,001,730 486,502 October 2, 2011 1,179,011 533,310 October 3, 2011 897,939 468,850 October 4, 2011 615,857 362,425 October 5, 2011 650,518 391,837 October 6, 2011 704,610 377,745 October 7, 2011 736,405 386,934 October 8, 2011 981,703 489,283 October 9, 2011 1,215,739 533,348 October 10, 2011 1,039,058 499,345 October 11, 2011 811,902 433,446 October 12, 2011 689,445 378,403 October 13, 2011 671,186 380,378 October 14, 2011 815,106 391,953 October 15, 2011 1,017,779 495,907 October 16, 2011 1,157,056 527,530 October 17, 2011 864,335 463,849 October 18, 2011 669,595 386,016 October 19, 2011 685,750 385,394 October 20, 2011 659,285 389,096 October 21, 2011 752,973 402,725 October 22, 2011 978,938 501,468 October 23, 2011 1,238,287 539,124 October 24, 2011 999,419 493,382 October 25, 2011 764,171 392,193 October 26, 2011 694,636 364,708 October 27, 2011 686,362 366,361 October 28, 2011 742,349 376,569 October 29, 2011 918,816 446,660 October 30, 2011 1,093,728 477,955 October 31, 2011 882,343 424,833 Disclosure for my collection methods. I use a simple copy and paste from Bungie's REACH project page around noon local time. Not all values were collected at exactly that time. Occasionally collection could be off by several hours. I only guarantee that I have made no willful misrepresentations by deliberately skewing collection in such a manner that poor conclusions or comparisons could be made or that any numbers presented are anything other than attempts to collect data from Bungie. Draw conclusions at your own risk. Observations. REACH's 24hr UU population in October remained quite steady until the last week of the month when another gradual reduction in population began. The month ended again with the lowest recorded values I have collected thus far. Of note is that for the first time and during the last eight days, the 24hr population never exceeded 500,000. Highest population value collected 539,124. Lowest population value collected 362,425. Weekends have typically had a higher population. REACH population by the end of October 2011, is under performing by ~100,000 to 400,000/24hrs as compared to Halo 3 during October 2008. Conclusions Halo REACH's population is somewhat healthy and somewhat stable. Overall population is decreasing. A tiny population spike occurred just after October 4 when the Title Update (TU) Beta playlist was activated. The spike lasted about one day. I believe it was caused by the TU Beta playlist. What I cannot conclude is whether the TU Beta playlist prevented additional population loss. Opinion It is a depressing reality that we are now in unknown territory. The population dipped below 400,000 repeatedly this month. This milestone was accentuated by the last eight days never exceeding 500,000. My guess from last month appears to have been mostly correct. "October may see a small population spike when the TU Beta playlists are implemented October 4. I am currently doubting a spike will occur. If anything we may see a flattening effect which would be better than a decrease." My guess for November is that Halo Anniversary will bring back to REACH approximately 100,000 users per day by the end of the month. I believe this to be an optimistic number because several other new AAA games are releasing around that time. Even Anniversary campaign will pull people out of matchmaking for a few days per person. Halo REACH is not dead but is continuing to fade. I am still not expecting this horse to get back in the race until after Halo Anniversary is released November 15. It'll have to get back on the track before it can even begin to race. If no DLC or some other new feature drops in February/March 2012, I expect decreases in population to resume. FPS fans need a good quality FPS title to play. Even with new AAA titles coming out REACH will continue to be a top tier AAA experience. Currently, only REACH can provide the best 'Halo experience'. It's core fans will stick with it until Halo 4 but even they will take breaks from it. If your Friends List is no longer showing anyone playing REACH, I recommend you get some new XBL friends. Links to previous population reports Newest to oldest. http://carnage.bungie.org/haloforum/halo.forum.pl?read=1103658 http://carnage.bungie.org/haloforum/halo.forum.pl?read=1098060 http://carnage.bungie.org/haloforum/halo.forum.pl?read=1091242 http://carnage.bungie.org/haloforum/halo.forum.pl?read=1084475 http://hf.smallbits.com/haloforum/halo.forum.pl?read=1068845 http://carnage.bungie.org/haloforum/halo.forum.pl?read=1074439

Message Index

October 2011 REACH Population Report	DEEP NNN	10/31/11 5:36 p.m.
Re: October 2011 REACH Population Report	Flynn J Taggart	10/31/11 7:56 p.m.
Re: October 2011 REACH Population Report	DEEP NNN	10/31/11 8:29 p.m.
Re: October 2011 REACH Population Report	SIX min WHISTLE	11/1/11 2:59 a.m.
Re: October 2011 REACH Population Report	DEEP NNN	11/1/11 5:44 a.m.
Re: October 2011 REACH Population Report	nillapuddin	11/1/11 6:14 p.m.
Re: October 2011 REACH Population Report	DEEP NNN	11/1/11 6:20 p.m.
Re: October 2011 REACH Population Report	SIX min WHISTLE	11/1/11 7:07 p.m.
Re: October 2011 REACH Population Report	DEEP NNN	11/1/11 7:11 p.m.
Re: October 2011 REACH Population Report	nillapuddin	11/1/11 7:39 p.m.
Re: October 2011 REACH Population Report	General Vagueness	11/1/11 8:57 p.m.
Re: October 2011 REACH Population Report	nillapuddin	11/1/11 9:24 p.m.
Re: October 2011 REACH Population Report	General Vagueness	11/1/11 10:45 p.m.
Re: October 2011 REACH Population Report	General Vagueness	11/1/11 8:52 p.m.
Re: October 2011 REACH Population Report	DEEP NNN	11/1/11 10:10 p.m.